The greatest effect will come from globalization:

• As of 2007, more of the US GDP (Gross Domestic Production) resulted from world trade than domestic. That trend will continue and increase in speed. (a)
• As of May 2011, 50% of all Electronic Engineering Masters degree holders in the US (not just students) were foreign nationals. 70% of PhDs. (b)
• The number of manufacturing jobs in this country have fallen 44% since the peak in 1979. They are projected to shrink 1.25 million between 2008 and 2018 even though they have increased in the last 18 months. (c)
• While there are only 6-8 million ex-pats (ex-patriates) from the US living abroad, there are 200 million ex-pats globally. Workers from the US are not the talent of choice. (d)
• The top 25% of Chinese students or the top 28% of Indian students outnumber the number of Adults 18+ in the US. They will be looking for work and opportunity in the near future.

Paying attention yet? If you think that “after the recession” things will go back to where they were 5-10 years ago, you are in denial. You need to learn how to manage and adapt your career strategies now in order protect yourself for the future. Stay tuned, we will be talking a lot more about this.

(a) Russell Institutional Research 2010
(b) President’s Council Jobs + Competitiveness May 2011
(c) Bureau Labor Statistics 2008, 2011
(d) UN Secretariat, Dept of Econ Affairs 2005, US State Department 2010

Selling Yourself to Management

As I said in my last post, as a recruiter, I am not actually seeing any evidence of a Recession outside of the financial industry. However, many of the strategies that protect you in a bad market also improve your status with in a good market.

• Network to keep your value, your brand, visible at all times with your present management and clients. Networking builds bridges to get things accomplished on an every day basis. You should be networking at 2 or 3 title levels above you as insurance if your boss leaves the company. Network with other departments. Network with people junior to you as they may have very different philosophies towards work.
• Look for opportunities to demonstrate how you made (or can make) the company money, saved the company money or made it more efficient. Praise co-workers frequently and tell their bosses. Increase visibility and momentum for your entire team.
• Improve the quality of your written and oral presentation to be a more effective advocate of your ideas. Dress and act more professionally.
• Volunteer to be on committees or projects where you can showcase your thought leadership across the company. Mentor co-workers, help your boss on his/her pet project.
• If you are telecommuter make extra effort to remind teammates you are mission-critical. Be in the office often to build the interpersonal bonds.
• Create opportunities to solicit written feedback on your performance. Send status reports. Ask for signoff on future project methodology. On projects just completed ask your boss if he/she would add anything the next time. The paper trail can be used at review time to remind your boss of the great work you did and, not incidentally, that he/she signed off on your methodology. If you ever lose your job in a large RIF, you have a collection of emails at home you may be able to use to get a job in another department or at least use to find another job. You can use the same method with stakeholders in other departments.
• In a slow or negative economy, especially at a public company, bonuses are easier to negotiate than raises (because bonuses affect the stock price less.) Raises are more likely indexed to company performance and merit bonuses are less wide spread amongst employees. This is not the time to demand a raise or you will leave. This not the best time to be the most expensive person at your band/grade level. This is the time to be more flexible with your employer to give him more room to maneuver and keep you if cuts do happen.

Jobs to Target

As a recruiter, I am not actually seeing any evidence of a Recession although that may change. I am seeing a mixed market, but that has been true since 9/11/01. The most obvious exception is the Financial companies which have been disproportionately affected by the mortgage market defaults. Whether or not we evolve in to a Recession, many of the strategies that protect you in a bad market also will help you get ahead and be more promotable than your co-workers in any market.

These are the more secure roles and companies to target if possible:

• The companies and product groups which cannot afford NOT to innovate continuously or they risk falling behind their competitors. Examples are medical device companies in highly competitive sectors (e.g.,pacemaker companies) or companies with computerized technology or internet services (.com) offerings.
• The Products and Projects which are more visible in a company and are the largest revenue generators, flagship products (most well-known brand names), and new Products which will improve the company’s share of market or open a major new source of revenue as assuming the project has adequate funds available for investment.
• Avoid projects which are nice-to-have but not mission critical. For instance, upgrading software for the back office accounting department is probably not critical unless there are new guidelines like Sarbannes Oxley. Upgrading Customer Service is probably not mission-critical to a company in tough times unless they have had a massive customer problem with product safety or efficacy.
• Seek roles that are in revenue generating departments such as Product Manager. If you are a Marketing Communications professional, focus on service companies versus industrial companies. Marcomm is more critical to a service company. In an industrial environment where there are not elaborate solutions offerings, Marcomm is a cost or support department.
• Seek roles visible to the outside world such as the Manager of Investor Relations, or FDA compliance. This would not be a good time to seek Employee Relations or Team Building roles which are far more likely to be considered a luxury in a business downturn. On the other hand, if Employee Relations is your #1 fantasy, seek the companies where it is more important. A retailer, for instance, has lots of employee turnover, high absenteeism and low employee engagement levels. In that environment Employee Relations is relatively more important.
• Industrial companies adding services/solutions offerings. Many industrial companies are seeing margins fall because of cheaper goods likes sensors being made in Asia. To compensate these companies are adding value and revenue by adding services like remote monitoring of equipment so a customer has less risk of down-time for repairs.
• Companies with “brochureware” websites are adding CRM (Customer Relationship Management) layers. For instance, you may receive an email that offers white paper for free if and only if you fill out 10 points of information that enables a salesperson to call you with some prior knowledge of your business needs. There is a huge move to have integrated media layers (promotions, loyalty efforts, etc.) point the customer back to the website and to interact with it as part of the sales process.
• If you are a web programmer, learn SilverLight which will enable TV-like Rich Media ads on the internet starting this fall, compliments of Microsoft. The growth of such ads will be explosive. These ads will be targeted to your personal internet habits just like ad banners are now.